Without reading your links, 20 years ago they taught us enough to know that now there isn’t an Iron curtain, trade balances and supplies are better known/more transparent although the commodity majors still hold the information keys, the Middle East is still a hot mess but there is a lot of domestic US oil available due to shale, we still have the capability to nuke the planet if someone doesn’t get their way, social unrest is being caused by an various governments and economies that arent working for everyone and needs to rebalance, inflation will continue to be driven by demographic realities for years and years, and the commodity sector is a puddle in an ocean of money so outside factors and technicals can whelm over fundamentals for any emotional reason.