| Burdick - 4/7/2024 18:52
Could this be the set up in the cattle market. With breakevens running -$300 before this past weeks futures action. High priced corn make high priced cattle now corn is in the basement are cattle headed there I don’t think many of these high priced feeders have been hedged. I have totally flipped my opinion. I know cash is king and it hasn’t fallen out of bed like the futures.
This is all pretty much the modus operandi for the cattle market. We (producers) always think it should keep going higher, numbers are tight or demand is strong or whatever, but it falls off anyway. Usually there’s a specific headline that marks the top. This is probably the headline it needs to roll over and not be back for a decade.
Cow calf guys have had opportunity to sell two calf crops at the highs (using cash and futures), this is what the cycle has always given them.
The thing I don’t see, that might keep the markets up, is expansion for the cow herd. This is probably just another excuse to not pile on the short side like I should be. |
The perfect storm
