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| when one looks at the end of the Brazilian 22-23 soybean shipping season it tends to lead one to think that last years bean crop was larger than advertised, does that then lead to not as fatal results as some claim for this year? 2nd crop corn still has some challenges in front of it, will acres offset yield? will both be lower ? In the US planted acres will matter and how they are split, my guess is cotton gets some in the south and maybe a slight move to minor crops in northern plains. 92 corn 89 beans???
the funds are still heavily oversold, all be it have done a little buying this should continue for the next 5 weeks could see them cut their net short position in half maybe more if there is a perceived weather problem. but to get any jets under this market we need to see something that resembles demand from the export market. corn has a skoosh but beans nota.
not a big chart guy but they help when one is looking at seasonal's only gap I see in corn is a small one in Dec24 at 5.02 to 5.03 I have some level of confidence that will get filled. In beans there is a gap in the May around 13.05 area looks to be a 5cent gap I'm in the hope stage on that one, Nov.24 has 12.36 to 12.44 that one i think get filled.
I would call myself cautiously optimistic on corn and beans, thinking short covering should get us into those new crop gaps for some opportunity to put on sales and moves above those levels should be sales adders.
Demand is still our over riding problem and will be a anchor on ones bottom line for the next few years.
Edited by SodbusterIII 3/16/2024 11:54
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Just some thoughts to ponder corn and beans
