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EC SD | Brazil is just past 1/2 done harvesting soybeans, and their national yield estimates are dropping with each successive estimate. They normally export a bit over half of the world's soybean trade volume, so have a huge impact on global pricing.
CONAB reduced their estimate again this week, and it already is projecting a production deficit (from a few months ago) of 10% for the whole country. Now to put that into perspective, they are having a soybean crop as bad as the US had in 2012!! That is using the latest CONAB estimate, and if the crop comes in even smaller it will be worse than our 2012 year!! What would price do if it was the US having another 2012 like year of soybean production???
Meanwhile the USDA is projecting a 5% global rise in soybean consumption in 2024 vs 2023. They are desperate to hold the price down, so unwilling at this point to acknowledge the reality of Brazil's crop situation, despite all others reporting historic yield losses in the major growing areas. At some point market participants will react to the reality though, and that is likely between now and June, imho... | |
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Beans looking strong
