The weather story has been thoroughly discussed with fund managers comfortably short after the WASDE has shown enough building carry over stocks enough to lower expected average prices.. Vaclavick talks about this today.. on his podcast.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6NL7A7XCnrI 

Ukraine may not have a meaningful impact and benign weather elsewhere may be enough for prices to continue to drift lower.

Or a geopolitical event may spark a short covering rally.. ??

A dangerous situation could develop.