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| Grains lower across the board as corn and soybeans give back yesterdays gains while Chicago wheat makes a new low.
Wheat was under heavy pressure as Russia continues to sell cheap wheat around the world while the US misses out on most of the business. Prices in Europe also continue to fall which negatively effects prices here in the US.
Some of the weakness from wheat spread over into corn, but overall there was just a lack of bullish news today.
Brazil weather is becoming less impactful for the soybean crop, as their harvest is roughly 50% complete.
There is still concerns with the second corn crop in Brazil however. They are supposed to get some rains here shortly, but the question is how big of an impact will this make on their already poor soil moisture situation.
Dr. Cordonnier left his estimates for Brazil unchanged. With 145 MMT for beans and 50 MMT for corn, but his bias remains neutral to lower moving forward.
The rumor yesterday was that China was back in the market. As they bought beans from Brazil and corn from Ukraine. But the US hasn’t seen any business thus far.
Friday we get the USDA report. Most are looking for the US numbers to be a non event, as there will be no production changes made until May, and we will likely not see any domestic changes made. As the USDA historically waits until April to do so. However, some think we will see slight cuts to export demand in beans and wheat.
The trade is expecting:
• Corn carryout: 2.159
• Bean carryout: 319
• Wheat carryout: 657
The South America numbers will be the ones to watch, as the USDA so far thinks the Brazil crop is bigger than everyone else on the planet does.
Expect the numbers to be lower. But will the USDA lower them as much as they should? Probably not. But at least it will show a trend that the crop is getting smaller….
Read today’s market update where we go over the lack of moisture in both Brazil and the US and what they both could mean for the markets
Read Here: https://txt.so/zIwjK8
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Market comments - new wheat low & USDA estimates
