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| Three months doesn't make a marketing year. Sure, I suppose a guy can throw in the towel, say grains never, ever going to move up in next few years so take the cash. Suppose grains do move up 10% in the next 3 months, are you money ahead selling March 1 and taking the cash and interest payments or holding that grain? Suppose wheat gains $1.00 in next 9 months, how does that interest on cash calculation work out.
50% of my wheat was sold by mid January, should I sell the rest now because I didn't sell 100% by November 1? It seems so is the thinking on "market talk". Or does a guy sit on it? And no, I don't want to hear that it should have all been sold - that ship sailed so not open for discussion. I want the recommendations from the guys with the crystal ball that say wheat will never bounce up in the next 18 months.
Maybe sum it up for us:
Grains will keep going down so sell now.
Grsins will keep going down so don't hold grain.
Grains will keep going down so don't take any speculative position to the contrary.
Grains will not go up in any time frame that would come remotely close to offsetting what the interest on cash will be.
The "funds" are the smart money so just follow their lead.
And yet in all this there is always a party taking the opposite position, I beleive that is how futures work.
Guys throw in the towel pretty easily around here. Marketing last year's crop is done, stick a fork in it - holding it any longer is guaranteed to be a loser whether it is 2 weeks or 9 months from now.
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Funds starting to cover.. how high? $1 Corn.. $2 soybeans??
