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| Anyone think of any motivation CONAB would have to put out numbers far lower than the USDA? I’m sure you could all think of plenty of reasons for the USDA to have numbers higher than CONAB..
I am not saying the USDA is wrong by any means but looking for discussion.
Overall the CONAB report was very friendly. USDA on the other hand was not.
Despite the fairly negative USDA report, corn and soybeans both held in there. Corn closed well off its lows while beans actually closed higher even with the carryout numbers coming in higher for both the US and world ending stocks.
The biggest change came from US soybeans carryout. Going from 280 million bushels to 315 million.
The USDA opted to only cut Brazil beans to 156. Down just -1 from last months 157 and well above the pre report estimates of 153.
The USDA had Brazil corn at 124 vs 127 last month. Which was right on the estimates.
But for context, CONAB sees Brazil crops a lot smaller.. when these came out this morning beans were trading over $12.00
For beans: CONAB 149 vs USDA 157
For corn: CONAB 114 vs USDA 124
Now the USDA is typically a lot higher than the CONAB. But these are some wide ranges. One would think that Brazils USDA has a better outlook on their crop than we do here in the US..
Today wasn’t all that bad.
Corn made a new low but bounced. We will probably get a dead cat bounce. But we will need a bounce bigger than 10 cents to confirm any reversal.
Beans had a good day with reversal potential, but we are completely trading sideways. So we will need to take out the late Jan highs of $12.45 to confirm anything.
Bean oil has had 4 strong days in a row, hitting multi week highs. If something is going to lead us higher, it could very well be bean oil. The same thing that led us higher when we started talking about the crush plants
The numbers that the USDA gave us don’t help prices. The CONAB numbers do help prices. What happens if the CONAB numbers are right when it’s all said and done?
Listen to today’s full report breakdown where we go over the charts, the numbers, what to expect moving forward, and a potential game changing factor for beans
Listen Here: https://txt.so/EIYVs7
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Was the USDA or CONAB right? - Market Audio Comments
