northern edge of north central Missouri | Palmtopper - 5/16/2023 09:00
I knew it was a bad idea to agree with vin vin ....my #1
Vin is an easy target but is no different than several others on here in terms of guessing markets.
The ones who talk in code are the most entertaining.
The ones who say two opposing things at the same time should be in politics.
The ones who know so confidently after the fact are the most irritating.
The ones who admit they have no clue and know it’s a guessing game of luck are the honest ones. (But not interesting either lol)
Nobody knows future market moves. Nobody.
You can take your guess when to sell and then if you lack confidence in your decision you can play the options game (at a significant cost) and guess when to exit that position and on and on.
But bottom line is producers get one chance to final price their production and that price is determined by a bunch of gamblers who play in commodities on the board of trade. I’m not going to change it but I’m never going to like it. Add constant government reports just to add insult to injury. It turns this job into a gut wrenching occupation. The marketing year price range has never been bigger with violent price movement potential. The best sales/worst sales disparity is staggering.
Solution: Have a trading platform limited to quantity available for trading to arrive at price. A finite amount. Make it tangible instead of meaningless. Attach price to real supply. (Will never happen)
Spread out sales and hope you don’t screw up too bad too many years in a row. That’s our job now. Honestly I haven’t done terribly over a lifetime. I do better on long range “true” markets like land. It’s real. It’s true supply and demand etc.
But the “experts” on here……(no offense to anyone) I learned to ignore their “knowledge”. All of them. It’s a popularity/ego contest is all. It’s entertaining but that’s it. Better to not let them influence my own gut.
My gut right now thinks “real” drought risk is above average. It’s a gamble. High stakes gamble. But IF!!!! Lol
And if not I clean out the bins at prices lower than offered today. I’ve seen it go both ways. Several times!
Good luck guessing to all the producers!
And don’t let anything I just said influence you either!!
I know nothing about the future but will consider myself blessed if I get to participate :) |
ouch..
