Eric Snodgrass weather update this morning..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cu2Fn5830IQ

Still cautious and waiting on the pattern to set up.. but cautions that as El Niño transitions..  it could be dry like 1988, 1983.. or benign and favorable like 2016.. “too early to know which..”

His analog years are.. 1952, 54, 58, 66, 69, 73, 83, 87, 88, 92, 95, 98, 03, 10, and 2016 so 15 years.. which if you run all of them.. ??  Not very decisive.

Again very dry was 1983 and 1988.(imagine the fireworks with record short funds)

but also 2016.. which.. short funds could be correct.

He also went dry into South America’s Safrina crop (for now..)

he’s very disciplined saying.. “I need more data/time for the pattern to develop.. I’m just throwing out what could be..”

Market wise.. I think the funds are too short.. South American farmers have reacted the same as US.. delaying sales..

https://www.soybeansandcorn.com/articles/9880/

Meanwhile the summer driving season is about to kick off.. spurring ethanol demand.. and the WASDE will eventually have to recognize the South American soybean losses.

and we’re turning dry here.. where we have yet to refill from the La Niña dryness. 

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