I think that the severity of the drought out here on the fringe coupled by the incredible need to move Corn out here to the plains.. complicated NASSs ability to estimate grain stocks and yields.

in order to “measure up” the estimates from NASS as commercial grain stocks are reported through time.. the final size of the 2022 Corn crop will be realized.. so.. how bad was it?

basis strength says.. pretty bad.

Note that dark green yields from the 2021 crop in irrigated feedlot country.. a large chunk goes to feedlots as high moisture corn.. and may not be reported regularly to the grain insurance regulators.. ???

in some cases those yields for 2022 were slashed in half or more.. although some good wells held up.. it’ll be interesting to see.

personal note.. our new pivot service guys came from Lubbock Texas.. “Our wells were good back in the day.. 800 to 1200 gpm.. as the table declined.. my last year farming.. we were pumping 150 gpm.. turned the pivots on in February and watered till November.. still couldn’t raise cotton.. during the dry years.

it’s moving this way..”

”gulp.”

I do believe the aquifers can be recharged with rains.. which are needed.. but buying 200 bu irrigated corn inputs and realizing 125 bu or less.. ain’t gonna pencil for long. 

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