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| I understand there was fund liquidation most of the session with buyers just backing away the last hour. There will be more to come. Could be a lot more. Be cautious.
Two things.
I, and think most people familiar with markets, dislike some of these 'wire house' research reports because they mislead the wrong people. While we may some day see $6.50 corn, it simply is not in the cards within our current livestock price structure nor ethanol structure. Ethanol would have to advance in price while crude oil is declining & DDg's would have to advance to all time highs in an environment when we will still have an ample supply of corn to carry out this august.
These markets all move in cycles....This bean market will be tough to kill and think once the SA crops are more closely understood, I think-under the worst case scenario..we will have one more run in early summer. Same for wheat.
And, we still have acreage considerations.
We are discounting a recession & the markets were simply too loaded with speculators.
At this writing, I plan to sell more corn on the first higher close, & look for a spot to pick up beans...& while I like the old crop wheat, it is pure speculation and have enough for the moment. Going to review the charts tonight.
Someone had a sugar question this morning & was no help as I have not traded it for years & seldom watch it.
But, triggered an old thought. How to know when you have a really bad trade.
About 35+ years ago, in an exuberant & careless mood I got into a thin market, was not working out & became a real thorn for me. Began to influence my thinking & I learned early to get rid of bad positions. Have to keep a clear head.
I knew one of the pit brokers & called him at home telling him to GMO (get me out) at his discretion the next day. Didn’t care if he did it one contract at a time, or whatever, he could use the entire day.
He called about mid-session & indicated he’d only lost 6 or 7 contracts & while we were friends, this trade was ugly & everyone knew I was stuck & he was a little embarrassed about it. He was trying to establish a reputation of his own and attract some commercial clients in another pit. Reminding him it was his job, and I had performed a few favors for him, and generally holding his hand, he finally agreed to continue.
When the broker is reluctant to handle the deal, that’s when you know you have a bad trade (besides the loss).
Edited by SeniorCitizen 1/23/2008 15:47
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Trading.
