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| SHORT TERM MAY 21 -22 On the surface Map this afternoon see temperatures over much of ND much colder than they had been the readings in the 40s and L 60s. The front is situated along the ND SD State line into Lower MN then across Lower WI and into northeastern ILL -- including the Chicago metro area and into Northern IND. Meanwhile significant Low pressures developing over the Northern Rockies. The Low pressure area coming out of the Northern Rockies will bring significant rain as forecasted to much of far southeastern Alberta Saskatchewan and Lower Manitoba (MB) over the next two days. The coverage will be about 60 to 70% in these areas... of 0.25" to 1.50" with locations such as Medicine Hat Saskatoon Regina and Winnipeg.
MEDIUM RANGE MAY 23 - 27
After that initial area of Low pressure moves up into Manitoba on Tuesday and another Low will develop on this front across the Upper Plains which shall bring significant rain to the Dakotas MN central and eastern Neb and of much of Iowa....75% coverage of 0.50 to 2.00" with some heavier amounts to 3.00"+ likely. This 2nd Low will also move into MB of and become major low for that areas bringing ADDITIONAL heavy rains and good coverage to much of MB and western Ontario WED and THUR.
The real issue again remains what happens to the cold front when it drives into MO and ILL. Most of the model data shows this cold front really losing its punch as it approaches the Mississippi River. I am sure there will be SOME showers and thunderstorms with the cold front as a moves into eastern and central MO and ILL into IND and MI on Wednesday and Thursday. However it is not going to have nearly the impact that this system is going to have over the Upper Plains and WCB.... for the ECB 40% coverage of 0.10 to 0.50"
WEEK 2 MAY 28 - JUNE 3 If you recall the forecast discussion from last Friday -- both in the morning and the midday reports I mentioned how the pattern had turned significantly wider on some of the medium and long-range models with a series of low pressure area's coming in behind this feature Tuesday / Wednesday/ Thursday Low and cold front.
The weekend Data has NOT backed off that idea at all with at least two more significant systems coming in over the Upper Plains in the the next 10 days!!! (maybe 3) The American Canadian and European models all develop a system that brings significant rains to the Upper Plains 5/25 and into the WCB 5/26.... this Low moves into Manitoba and the western Great Lakes so the trailing cold front brings much less rain to the ECB. This is followed by another large and wet system for the Upper Plains late on 5/28 into the Upper WCB and western Great Lakes on 5/29 followed by yet ANOTHER system June 1 -2 coming out of Northern Rockies and again moving in to the Dakotas and western Great Lakes.
Edited by DT-wxrisk 5/20/2007 21:40
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