| http://www.bloomberg.com/insight/birth-death-model.html It doesn't sound like the Feds will change their model. If that's the case will the revision next February be 25% more than the 825,000 revision - roughly another 1,000,000 people? It sure looks like this problem has grown with the fast increase in unemployment and loss of businesses. Therefore, should we presume that next years will be revised by some exponent of change in unemployment from April 2009 - March 2010? Clearly we had a large number of businesses close after April 2009 up through today. I wonder how many businesses we lost in the last year? |