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Progression
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Ed Boysun
Posted 5/31/2023 14:16 (#10251018 - in reply to #10250943)
Subject: RE: Progression



Agent Orange: Friendly fire that keeps on burning.

Tesla EVs continue to see price cuts, for the most part while the average transaction price for an ICE vehicle continues to climb. Used market is still heavily in favor of ICE but as less are sold and more EVs appear on the used market, that will change too.
DC fast chargers are still being deployed to busy places but only a small percentage of EV owners rely solely on DC fast chargers. A 20 or 30 Amp 230V outlet in your garage or near your parking spot is so much handier and capable of recharging the average owner's car in time for the next day's trips. Consequently, the vehicles can be recharged during periods of low demand for power when they really place no peak demands on the grid or generation. Recent data shows 40%+ EV owners have their own solar and that number is growing. As the panels get cheaper per KWh, the numbers will grow. Folks that have a poor understanding of net billing complain about regular users subsidizing panel owners. That isn't the case but . . .
Gas tax revenue will take care of itself once enough EVs show up in a state and the tax guys see enough potential revenue to set up a taxing infrastructure. Texas Governor just signed legislation that will charge all new EVs a $400 fee and an additional $200 / year will be added to regular license fees. My only hope is that moneys collected will be used to fix roads and not be treated as a windfall to be used for unrelated stuff.
Battery energy density continues to improve and adopt new chemistries and technology. Batteries also continue to fall in price. I think it will become a balance between whether we should spend the money saved and reduced weight to put more batteries in a car to increase the range while keeping the same weight, or whether we reach a point where something like a 3 or 4 hundred mile range with fast recharge times of less than 10 minutes is good enough and we will actually see battery price and weight come down.

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