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JonSCKs
Posted 5/20/2023 13:26 (#10236572 - in reply to #10236276)
Subject: Structural differences..


w1891 - 5/20/2023 08:43

I realize KB and I have had dust ups and with all sincerity this is not trying to play gotcha, but review his thought process as the marketing year has progressed. Between that thought process and also a chunk of on farm stocks to be used on farm this spring and summer, there could be a chunk of corn still on farm in KS even where production was low. Same thing happened locally in 2012. $8+ corn was sold for low &7’s the next summer.

Edit: There is also an interesting data point when it comes to on-farm vs off-farm in KS vs say IA/IL. In IL on farm storage capacity is 90% of the off farm. In IA its 130%. In KS on-farm storage is only 32% of the off farm capacity. I would assume that's a relic of the heavy wheat growing years and the lack of usage on farm or locally vs export or long distance rail travel to get to a final end user. Vs say a IL or even more importantly IA, where on farm usage or local feed mill/ethanol has always been important so that on farm storage expanded as fast as commercial storage capacity. One could also possible draw the conclusion that there is sort of a standard amount of grain that has to be stored on farm in KS just to keep local animals fed year to year and basis and price doesn't change that much.


Yes our local coop used to fill at wheat harvest.. (biggest crop by acres) empty out.. by shipping to terminals.. then fill again during fall crop (biggest crop by bushels.)

As the feedlots grew.. they constructed large bunkers.. where high moisture corn.. 26% to 32% is ground.. then packed into storage.  There’s no shipping that to exports nor ethanol once that’s done.

the feedlots knew early how bad the HMC crop was gonna be.. so they got really aggressive.. pushing the basis.. sending trucks to the field.. etc.

In North Central Kansas.. KB is on the periphery of the feedlot belt.. it’s normal for basis to improve into the spring to draw dry corn bushels into the feedlots, ethanol plants to grind during the spring and summer.. unless the basis is already maxed.. suddenly KB is competing with shuttle loaders from the northern Cornbelt who would normally be shipping corn to exports.

plain to see now.

Who knew that Brazil was gonna bust a good double crop?  For that matter.. have they?  Not in the bag yet.

So maybe there’s a few more twists and turns yet to come?  But got to admit.. exports are gonna the cheaper bushels to compete.. 

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