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S Illinois | The first question cannot be proven in and of itself without relating it back to corn basis levels at the barge loading facilities. Low barge freight means barges are looking for loads. If all other alternate bulk barge load demand is steady(big assumption), corn either has low export demand or low corn supply. For the latter, corn basis would be abnormally strong at the barge loading facilities.
Those low freight rates can bid right back into corn basis. In his example, if it currently being bid at 22 and normal is say 45, that 23 cent/bu decrease in shipping cost can be directly added to the basis bid. So basis at the barge facility will rise until either it is stronger than domestic demand(aka the Decatur black hole of corn pull) or the foreign alternative can not be matched price wise. Saw some +80N at STL when the May/July roll occurred, but not some of the values seen in the Western corn belt. So a good level but not great and not likely strong enough to get trucks from Springfield north coming into STL like was wen last year.
That sort of ties into the other question. It can be said that there isn’t enough corn being sold at the price being offered. That could be tight US farmer holding/too strong of domestic demand or foreign export supply being offered cheaper than what US export supply could be sourced.
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This has been going around in the twitter world
