Whole farms ditched high input dryland corn acres here.. not that it’s a big deal.. and not universal.. but dryland corn acres right here.. are probably down.. 33 to 67%.  Not a big driver but significant.

The expectation in the March report was that corn acres were going to be down big.. vs soybeans.  Listening to analyst.. it sounds like at the last minute the core Cornbelt went ahead with corn.. price won.  But here on the fringe.. mostly.. that did not occur.  Cotton, Sorghum and fallow won out here.

my expectation is that overall US corn acres will be up some.. (as core Cornbelt caved) but balanced between those who went ahead vs those who said “Nyet.” (Out here in the fringe.)

Mid May rainfall was half of normal here.. today we are within a few inches with heat forecast.. so.. not in the clear yet.

Summer fallow hasn’t been a big influence but those who had it harvested 40 to 50 bu dryland HRW wheat vs 5 to 30 bu continuous.  With feed grains in the rotation coupled with ultra high chemical costs.. the biggest gainer in acreage for 2023 appears to be “fallow” here..  

“Screw it.. get the sweeps out.. farm it.. idle it.. bank moisture for 2024.”

vs a single chemical pass at $35/ acre or more.. over a dollar per bushel x ??? Passes..??? Does not compute!!!
Sweeps.. at less than a third of that costs.. but depletes moisture.  Probably locks in fallow program.. unless it starts raining.

The Cornbelt would probably be a different story.. but as for the 30 to 50 million acres out here on the plains.

In the words of President Joe Biden.. “It’s gonna be a pretty big effing deal.”  Irregardless of how high they raise interest rates.. ironically.. the higher rates go.. the lower planted acres go.. just the way the economics are.

$50 roundup.
$300 seed
$600 fertilizer 

“screw that.” 

we are making 2023 planting decisions now as we evaluate options on wheat/pigweed stubble.. hmm

butterfly habitat?   Halfway there already…