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North West Ukraine | Dear Friends,
I apologize for keeping silence over a long period of time and not responding here. I personally thank Ron for keeping you updated meanwhile. He described the overall situation very well. First, I`m OK, the farm is also OK unlike many farms at the East and South of Ukraine. At least until now, I have been "lucky" that all of Russian missiles that flew over my head hit other areas within 20-50 miles range (and surely, I feel sorry for those killed and injured....). However, there is no logic behind Russian air strikes. Recently, they hit a small town of Chortkiv which is 120 miles away from my farm where there is no any military infrastructure. They want us to fear that it might happen anytime at any location. Putin`s end goal is to demolish Ukraine`s sovereignty, to kill civilians and eventually to use the territory of Ukraine as a foothold to attack Eastern Europe (mainly Poland) and Baltic States. In fact, we are facing the clash of civilizations with Ukraine being the battleground. In fact, this is already the WW3 currently "localized" within Ukrainian borders. That`s why it`s critically important that the world helps us with heavy weaponry and sanctions against russia as much as possible because it will allow us to defend efficiently and defeat the enemy within Ukrainian borders. In simple terms, Ukraine is a fortress of the EU and North America values in this part of the world. If it fails, the russian orcs will have open gates for further invasion of Europe and will also threat US and Canada. So, it`s not just the Ukrainian deal, it`s a matter of existential choice for the world. And certainly, there is nothing common with Afghanistan situation that most of you feel was a bad story for the US.
Being just a farmer, I feel endlessly grateful to the governments of US, Canada, Great Britain, Poland and many other countries for all of unprecedented support that Ukraine already got and the military equipment still on its way to the frontline of fire. I do understand, that all of you have to pay for that in the form of increased prices for fuel, fertilizer, other farm inputs, taxes, higher inflation and eventually less income to your families. There is an obvious downturn in global economy caused by russian war against the world. However, as it was correctly said by many at this forum, this is not a high price as compared to lost lives in my country. Some estimates say 30+ thousand militarians killed, 100+ thousand injured. At least 20 thousand civilians killed, 60+ thousand injured. 320 children died, 590 injured. Now, just imagine 1.2 million (!) Ukrainians including 240 thousand children that were forced by russian troops to move out from occupied Ukrainian territories to remote areas of russian empire. 8 million people had to leave their houses and move to safer places in Ukraine. More than 7 million people fleed to EU and the rest of the world (including my wife and my son). Some of them will never return back home. Just imagine the huge genetic impact on the country if a million of Ukrainain children will have to stay abroad. 15 million sq.ft of households where 4 million people lived are completely destroyed including the house of my parents. My parents now live in a temporary shelter. A lot of people had to stay at the occupied territories and now forced to accept russian "citizenship" otherwise they will be tortured / killed and their property will be taken away. These are just the official statistics as of June, 1st. It does not account for a lot of undocumented war crimes done by russians. And of course, it`s hard to realize the scope of tragedy suffered by every single Ukrainian family behind those millions reported by official statistics... Millions of tons of grains was stolen from occupied territories and sold to Syria. Just try to grasp that all that nightmare is happening now in 21st century in the geographical centre of Europe in a brave and vibrant country which is one step away from becoming the full-scale member of the family of EU countries...
My family is still in Portugal. I don`t feel it`s safe for them to get back home now. Firstly, because of never ending air strikes and secondly, because of high probability that russians may hit with tactical nuclear weapons, especially if they start to lose occupied territories in Ukraine. That`s unpredictable at all, the only thing we know for sure is that there is nothing moral and saint left in the putin`s head. Belarus is still threatening from the North. I don`t think they have enough military power to initiate a large-scale attack, however Belarus territory is used to launch missiles against Ukraine and a lot of Ukrainian troops are tied up at the Belarus border being ready to defend. My wife and son will probably move to Great Britain by the end of summer. My boy has to go to English speaking school. In this situation, our family focus is 100% switched to his education and life prospects. Also, England accepts Ukrainian refugees very well granting work permits. Now, we are searching for the family in GB that will be ready to accomodate them for a couple of months.
As to farming, needless to say, it`s the most challenging year for all of us farmers here. The farm inputs soared up 2-3 times in price, fuel is a precious asset we all are chasing for, millions of tons of grain are not marketable and start to spoil at warehouses. Consequently, the prices for grains fell by 40-50%. Grain eleveators are still overloaded with last year crop and possibly will not accept a vast portion of a new crop coming soon. The corn is a biggest challenge since it requires a lot of gas to dry it up. Bank % rates soared up to 20% and are expected to increase further. Some large farms already made calculations that they are better not to plant in 2023 because the expected loss from planted acres will exceed the loss from paying just the rent to the landowners... My calculations confirm the expected loss this year and a doubled loss for the next year. Many farmers will allocate more acres to winter wheat and canola instead of corn and soybeans. This is going to be the first year when I will have to plant with no PK fertilizer. Most of it was imported from russia and belarus before the war and it`s no longer the case. EU fertilizer costs up to $1500-1700 / MT which questions ROI on that "investment". At the beginning of war, 4 out of my 5 employees were called to the Army, also I transferred a grain truck to the Armed Forces. So, I did 80% of fertilzer spreading, a lot of vertical tillage and nearly 100% of spraying myself for 3000 acres. The last two months were a spraying challenge because I did it with 78 ft boom pull-type sprayer: 3 passes over the rapeseeds, wheat and barley, 3 passes over the corn and one is still to go, 2 passes over the soybeans and one is still to be done, four passes over the sunflowers. All of them are conventional, so I have to do preemergence herbicide, two separate passes for broadleaves and grass weeds and one or two passes with fungicides, micros and insecticide. Despite working 18-20 hours a day, I`m still a week or so behind the schedule. For 10000 acres sprayed I desparately need a SP sprayer with 100 ft boom. I was about to buy a used JD 4830 from the US but the war put an end on any investment plans.
I have no clear "survival" startegy for my farm at the moment, as well as many other farmers, I think. But, having said all of that, we are not losing the confidence in Ukrainian victory and we`ll fight till the end. Our militarians do the best they can at the fire line, while farmers are struggling at fields to feed the country. And many thanks to all of you - for your help, prayers, persistence staying with us. Please, believe me, it all matters and counts. Just recall how vital the role of the US was during WW2 and rebuilding the Europe afterwards. And it was win-win situation for everyone.
Glory to Ukraine!
P.S. In a separate post I will be asking for a financial help to rebuild my parents` house. My wife has launched the fundraising campaign through the GoFundMe platform. THANK YOU!
Edited by Denn_UA 6/21/2022 06:48
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A message from Ukraine from Denn_UA
