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The economy
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jdironman
Posted 6/16/2022 09:06 (#9708013 - in reply to #9707844)
Subject: RE: The economy


Nw Iowa
It never happens as fast as you think. Inflation didn’t happen overnight, neither does the contraction. Some areas , this is first summer they can travel etc. We all like to think it is happening to somebody else and assume we will be fine. In rural areas farmers are probably spending more. A lot of people think that their raise increase is larger than it actually is. I know a lot of responsible people who live in the city and have know over my life a few irresponsible farmers. I think alot of luxury purchases will be much harder to finance with 6-8% versus the almost zero before. Higher interest will cool things down but will take time. If you are not financing anything interest doesn’t affect you. Groceries and gas take small swipes at you every month and takes awhile. My guess is it will take till fall or even early winter when the heating bills start to be real. I also think the direction of stock market will have a big effect as that really has a big driver to retired folks. There has been enough made that a 10% correction will not be drastic, 20% is definitely stop some spending, 30% would be huge.
Also this time a lot of dealers are going into a downturn with a lot less inventory than they have had. Inventory can really be what sinks a business in a downturn so that will not be as much of a issue. I also think a lot of larger companies are starting to position themselves for a downturn. Talked to our local tire dealer who is part of a large chain, he said corporate was being very cautious about building excess inventory.
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