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EC SD | I personally just toured the corn belt from end to end, and will say:
1) In Iowa, it got worse over the last week. Fields are uneven, lots of excess moisture stress, etc. especially west of I35.
2) In Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio, there are two corn crops about a month apart in maturity. Also the northern parts of these states is way way behind in maturity and moisture.
3) In the eastern fringe (PA, MD, VA), the corn is a disaster from drought. There will be a lot of zero corn yields in that area. That drought may well extend further to NC, etc. Those states will not be bailing out the corn belt this year.
The excellent corn is on a line from Columbus, OH to Bloomington IL. That line is consistently excellent, but only about 5% is tasseling. Nearly half of the field are a couple weeks or more away.
All across the country, the soybeans were very very short and stressed. I did not see a great soybean field... It is still early and soybeans are tough, so who knows, could be a record crop or a disaster crop of soybeans.
This enormous spread of maturities does spread the risk of a crop failure, but at the same time it lessens the chance of a record yield. Think about it, to have a record yield with two crops a month apart, will require excellent weather for a month longer than normal. No way to tell now which crop will be the higher yielding, but the average is highly likely to be lower than a record level.
Ok - so how to market... The trend is your friend, so plan on lower prices until the trend reverses. Will it reverse, of course it will - watch the weeklies for this. If you can wait that long is the question... | |
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Corn crop is not made and neither is soybeans
