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Mascoutah, Illinois | Here are some points to take note of.
1. The dollar is historically strongest in the Dec-Feb timeframe. (We should see weakness in the early spring.)
2. "Kadman" pointed out that funds will need to buy 45,000 corn contracts between January 8-14. (In theory, we should see a rally.)
3. The dollar is currently at 77 and in my opinion I believe it makes it to 82 before it fails. (NOT A BULLISH SIGNAL IN THE SHORT TERM.)
4. The second week of March and the last week of March are historically two of the best times to sell grain if I remember correctly.
5. The rally in 2009 started the last week of February and contined until June 30 when the USDA report put a huge crimp in the markets.
6. (OPINION) I believe inflation is in its infancy stages as we speak. I would not be suprised to see oil hit $100 in 2010 which in theory should help grains. (JUST OPINION)
SIDENOTE: We still need to see the final USDA numbers for this harvest even though some crops will still be left out in the fields. (This report can and sometimes does move the market 10-15 percent in a couple of weeks.) How much will the lack of fall tillage impact planting intentions?
THE BULL-BEAR DEBATE IS FOREVER ONGOING.
I am a "bear" in grains until further notice.
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Kudoos to djm................
