|
| This is the really scary part, IMHO, and I think it's right on.
"Finally, this highlights my concern about a double-dip recession. I think we could see one in 2011, as a result of the massive increases in taxes as the Bush tax cuts expire and the Pelosi-Reid-Obama crowd want to raise taxes on the "rich." Their assumption is that if we could grow quite well in the Clinton years with higher taxes, then we can do it again.
First, if there are no changes to the proposed tax increases, this will be a massive middle-class tax hike. Make no mistake, the Bush tax cuts resulted in a huge cut in the taxes of the middle class. The data clearly shows the wealthiest 20% are paying significantly more of the total taxes paid.
If you combine a large middle-class tax increase with an even larger new wealth tax (75% of which will affect the very small businesses we just highlighted), it will be a one-two punch to the economic body, when unemployment is already at 10%. You can't take out well over 2% (and maybe 3%) of GDP from the consumer without it having significant consequences.
Obama mentioned minor tax credits for small businesses in his plan, but then proposes to raise their taxes and health-care costs. It doesn't work that way. But it is time to hit the send button, so I will close."
If we're at 10%+ unemployment, or even back down to 9%, and we get that second dip, which I think is inevitable without policy changes, the how high is unemployment going to go? | |
|
10%+ unemployment thru 2015?
