I agree with your sentiments with one caveat. The value of the dollar, unless you are comparing it to gold or some other commodity, is in comparison to other currencies. When people talk about the value of the dollar falling they are usually referring to it based on other currencies. Many of those currencies are in no better shape than the dollar. So while I agree that long term the dollar is toast, I can see where it could rally simply because there could be negative events with some of the other currencies causing them to fall just as easily as there being more negative events to make the dollar fall. Also most of those currencies governments have been actively printing money to buy dollars so their currency would NOT advance against the dollar.

In summary, I would hate to be short the dollar right now simply because of the above reasons, not because the dollar has any reason to be strong. In reality nearly all the worlds currencies with maybe a few exceptions (like the Australian dollar, they raised interest rates) are debasing their currencies. That tells me that eventually, when things ever so slightly start to turn for the better world wide, there is going to be world wide rising prices caused by the monetary inflation. It is not going to be restricted to the US. Maybe not right now except for some bubbles being created, but very likely within the next couple years.

John