We are just nosing into a new El Niño pattern. (Red, in chart below.)

There was some talk a month ago about two different types of EN, depending on where the warm water surfaced. The contention was that the ones that surface further east yield more Atlantic hurricanes, while those that form in the mid-Pacific tend to suppress these storms. It's too early to know how this idea will shake out but the temperature anomaly image below shows this one is in the eastern Pacific.

(MEI_20090706.gif)

(pacificssta_ams_2009208.jpg)

MEI_20090706.gif (22KB - 206 downloads)

pacificssta_ams_2009208.jpg (88KB - 199 downloads)