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Central Missouri | We have to get used to Inflation. It is only going to get worse. The dollar is going to continue to fall and china/india demand is gonna continue; therefor a devalued dollar is going to be chasing a finite supply of many of the products that we use. Inflation will only get worse unless there is a worldwide recession and that doesn't look like it is in the cards. The days of cheap gas are over. The world can only pump so much oil per day and the demand is outstripping supply. Congress, mainly the libs, who don't want us drilling in anwar/continental shelf or anywhere else in the u.s. are gonna cause us unbelievable pain in this country. Congress doesn't have a clue as to the energy problem. How can they be so stupid. Did you hear Maxine Waters? Heard a dem congressman on T.V. the other day. He was from North Carolina. The interviewer asked him what congress was gonna do to solve oil shortage. His only answer was cellulosic ethanol. How can a congressman be so stupuid. How can you not understand the energy supply problem? While I'm on a rant lets annalize our inputs:
1. fuel : see above
2. seed: does anyone believe seed price will ever go down? No, so what will it cost in the future? Corn, I see 300/bag when drought corn comes out. Soys, RR2 will be 15/bag more than current price
3. fert : If fuel is going up so is N for same reasons. P & K is going-up or staying same for same reasons. Fert aint going down.
4. Machinery : Going up. How much don't know? Just going up
5. Pesticides : glyphosate/atrazine/fungicides already went up. The rest in my opinion will go up 15% next year.
6. Crop insurance will follow commodity prices.
7. Labor : It isn't gonna get any cheaper but will be one of the last things to increase dramatically. We will probably see a resurgance of unions
8. Cash rents will follow commodity prices
9. Interest : Short rates should stay low. Probably gonna get lower as Fed can't let economic growth tank. Long bond rates probably gonna go higher because the U.S. will have to finance our national debt somehow and we aren't gonna be able to do it with short interest rates bacause the fed will keep them low to keep the economy stimulated.
Did I miss anything? Just my opinion. What are yours?
I base alot of my opinion on Jim Sinclair's and sdwildman's musings.
JMO
Edited by ehoff 5/24/2008 11:32
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what if this is going on
