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| The Acreage estimates released by USDA were a good thing at this point as it allows some re-adjustment of thinking by the market & gives us one more benchmark.
There are three factors, outside of general economic activity: acreage, Planting weather & whether or not we are actually seeing any livestock liquidation. Weather will remain an unknown.
In my past experience, I suspect there are a lot of folks waiting to sense some livestock liquidation & thus far the statistics don't show anything meaningful.
This March 31 report will include acreage & stocks in all positions. Not much we can do about stocks except to assume in view of our high livestock populations and good export demand that usage will be pretty much on target. Some of the funds have their own usage models and will probably have a better grip on that number.
Acreage will be the killer & will set the direction of these markets until weather is a concern. A shocking number may influence international buyers to either step in and buy or back off and wait. A disappointing acreage figure may also motivate funds to either buy more or unload.
I've had CNBC on the past few days & the world is watching & reminds me of a year ago when these markets topped for awhile after the bulls got excited watching CNBC.
Since I DO HAVE A COUNTY BY COUNTY crop data base, I believe if those of us on this forum were to express what they see or suspect in their own location & the areas which you travel, it will take me a couple of days...but if we can get a two or three week lead before this report, it may prove helpful to everyone on this forum.
In other words, give me the input and I will handle the statistics.
LIST WHAT YOU SUSPECT ARE THE ACREAGE CHANGES
AS A PER CENT CHANGE FROM THIS LAST CROP.
CORN, WHEAT, (SPRING OR HRW), SOYBEANS OR COTTON & WHETHER YOU SUSPECT NEW ACRES GOING UNDER CULTIVATION.
LIST THE GENERAL LOCATION, NW, NE & ETC IN A STATE & I WILL PULL UP THOSE COUNTIES AFFECTED & TRY TO ARRIVE AT SOME MEANINGFUL NUMBERS. WHATEVER IS THE RESULT I WILL POST.
It may be a futile exercise, but if we can determine a meaningful trend change, it could be the most important item for the next few months.
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Acreage Ideas & Quik Survey
