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| Been busy this morning trying to keep my one foot on the dock with my long corn & the other on the 'wheat boat' which I am selling as part of my long term spread....the wheat boat keeps wanting to leave the dock (& the dock was wobbling due to the option liquidation).
The USDA Acreage numbers are what we have to work with until the official report & of course very few folks give them much credibility. Some question the total acres, I don't, we've done this before. I think the acres will be there, the question is the mix.
The corn supply & demand contains a latent bullish feature. USDA, in order to make the production "fit" had to REDUCE feed & residual by 9.2% from this year. Currently, we are feeding 93.8 million 'animal units' vs. 92 million one year ago & vs. 91.1 in 2005-06.
The exports have to be reduced by 12.3% from this year.
Therefore, the USDA S&D is telling us PRICES MUST RISE TO FORCE LIVESTOCK LIQUIDATION & MUST RISE TO SHUT DOWN EXPORTS.
ARE WE THERE? The official January Kill was released this morning & there is no evidence whatsoever in commercial slaughter leading to a liquidation conclusion. Further, there is no evidence of rationing in the export markets.
While I plan to dig a little deeper & no conclusion yet....but if the final corn figures come in below this number, or even close, some folks will have to dump some livestock.
Below are some acreage no's --
1984
Corn 80.5
G. Sorghum 17.3
Barley 11.9
Oats 12.4
Wheat 79.2
Rice 2.8
Sunseed 3.7
Soybeans 67.7
Cotton 10.3
286,050
2007
Corn 92.8
G. Sorghum 7.8
Barley 4.0
Oats 3.9
Wheat 60.5
Rice 2.7
Sunseed 1.8
Soybeans 64.1
Canola 1.1
Cotton 11.1
249,900
2008---possible...probable???
Corn 90.0
G. Sorghum 7.0??
Barley 3.8??
Oats 3.0??
Wheat 64
Rice 2.7
Sunseed 1.85??
Soybeans 71
Canola 1.1??
Cotton 9.5
253.950
253.950 + 23.5 CRP + 11.3 “other”—288.750 approx at the 1984 level.
Edited by SeniorCitizen 2/22/2008 15:16
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A quik review of data
