From the producer stand point, I have to say I am in total agreement.  Most of what you have pointed out I try to do.  The problem is as you stated, Discipline.  I have made what looked like good moves based on historical trend lines and had good results as well as moves that blew up in my face.  Good results make you start to feel knowledgeable, the bad results make you gun shy.  Overall, I have found if I stick with historical patterns with a little tweaking as affected by current events work okay.  You never hit the homerun, but you don't strike out either.

Keyword from all you posted:  DISCIPLINE