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Here we go New open May bean short
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plowboy
Posted 2/21/2008 00:51 (#315385 - in reply to #315282)
Subject: Re: $6 corn



Brazilton KS

 

Yes, much as you refuse to notice it, it is different this time.  This market is not being driven by a supply shock.  Look at history.  Every other time markets have spiked to this level, it has been a short term supply side deal which did not show up much, if at all, in the deferred years.  Here and now, we have seen and still see deferred years holding practically even with the nearby.  In the past, strong markets have lasted a year or two before they cooled off, with the deferred years never really attaining the level of the nearby contracts.  This market firmly into it's second season with three years of deferreds holding right in there with it, even after absorbing (more like 'gobbling up') a record corn crop. 

We are firmly into uncharted territory.  It may go up, it may go down, it may go sideways....I'm not going to attempt to predict that, but one thing which can be said with absolute certainty is that this is "different" then anything we have seen in the past.   

 

$4+ corn is hear to stay as long as $700 NH3 and DAP and $550 potash are here.  If it isn't, there won't be any corn.  There is not going to be a shortage of corn at $6 but there certainly would be a shortage of corn at $3 if the other side of the equation does not drastically adjust.   

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