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Head in the sand on 09 and 10 bean sales?
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Don Kraft
Posted 2/20/2008 19:52 (#315027 - in reply to #314595)
Subject: Re I have no special insight.



I'm not a bull or a bear. I am a realist and we have a $5 bid for new crop corn. Multiply that by your average yield and figure out what that totals up to. I don't know any more than anyone else. In fact I 'm wrong a lot. But I do know that I will not get it all. I won't hit the top of this market and don't expect to.

I just think it don't hurt a whole lot to have a sane voice in the bullish wilderness. Go ahead stay long if you wish, but merely entertain nthe possibility that you may be wrong and pay a heavy price for it. Yes I was advocating selling beans at $8 and again at $10 and I finished selling mine for $11.03. I do not regret those sales. They were decisions made on the basis of prudence at the time. Wrong as hell if you still got yours. But I'm wrong with money in the bank.

I am more apt to regret not locking in a price than I am to regret selling too soon. At these lofty levels you can't make a bad sale. Remeber next fall when you haul in that $4 corn that you could have had $5 and at 200 bushel per acre that is $200 that your leaving on the table. Some how $200 rents don't seem too high now.



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