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| Between March 31 & mid-April, we have SA harvest & wheat seedings & S. Africa & SE Asia harvests. The rains received over the weekend in Argentina were very beneficial to some areas, but it is heating up again. My concern is the enthusiasm for these upcoming reports. I doubt very much the 'acreage mix' will be shockingly bullish on everything. We will see more news about increased plantings & the reality is, if we have more acres of one item in this report...it can well become the limiting factor for awhile-If the report is a bearish surprise, traders generally do not think in terms of marginal acres & the fact yields may not be optimal....therefore, if the response leads to margin calls, all of the bullish factors which could emerge in the last 1/2 of April or into the critical weather period, won't mean much. Right now there is a lot of new money coming into these markets with very bullish expectations. Most of us know, agriculture does respond to price. Therefore, when I evaluate risk, in my own speculative situation, in my opinion, it surrounds this upcoming report-if prices do break...we will have underlying demand. If the report is bearish, in terms of total acres, buyers will step back until the market has shaken out. The other consideration are the existing shorts. If we run in the shorts coming into this report, this report had better be very bullish as an entire flock of new bulls will be required to support it.
Edited by SeniorCitizen 2/19/2008 14:18
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In the Scheme of Things.
