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SC Iowa | Some more pondering on acreage
Agree that we tend to "find" acres in years such as we're entering now, so always expect a few more acres in reports vs. stagnant or smaller numbers.
CRP---some folks are delving into these contracts which were just re-upped in last year or so....with cash rents at $200+, and the ability to sell $12 beans this year and $4.50+ corn next year, all of a sudden the idea of paying back last year's CRP payment of $100-125 is becoming an option worth considering....in the meantime, there is a lot of waiting to see if govt will make a move first on early out (I'm not holding my breath on that since they seem to have their hands full with trying to get a farm bill passed)....IF, and it's a big IF, we end up with a big crop problem this summer, the failure of govt to create an early out on CRP is going to be looked at in the same light as the setaside of 1995---which was what got us F2F
Corn vs. beans----let's break this down into several segments
1) I believe there is a pool of about 30-40 myn acres of midwestern ground that has superior corn growing potential....where the corn:bean yield ratio is 3.75:1 or higher....in THAT area, we should see producers stay with corn and see less of a shift back to beans....
2) As we get into areas where the corn:bean yield ratio drops down into the lower 3's, then we'll see bigger acreage shifts back into beans
3) Having said that, one of the new "defining factors" may be whether or not fertilizer inputs have been priced.....seeing the sticker shock on NPK prices vs. just last fall may be enough to encourage more bean acreage, maybe even in #1 geography described above
4) Don't underestimate the creativity to bring pasture/hay ground back into soybean production....we've got much better technology to do this than 20+ years ago....at these prices "you gotta try" something
NET/NET----I won't be surprised if corn acres come in a bit light, but the amount of EVENTUAL bean acres could be surprisingly high when we get to harvest next fall
Ray J | |
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Acres & Stuff
