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| With the unprecedented bull moves in farm crops we are now experiencing it is especially dangerous to count too heavily on patterns or methods that worked during more normal times.
"The trend is your friend" has much more meaning in the gigantic bull moves we are now experiencing. The persistence of the trend can be hard to believe.
Now, when I see a good sell pattern fail, I see it as a signal to buy. But, can never, ever be sure. Thus, be flexible. Swallow your ego and take small loses when needed. Or, go bankrupt.
Whether Double Top or other sell pattern, selling against a gigantic bull trend always has extra risk.
I just thought it interesting to understand, at least to a degree, why certain chart patterns work--some of the time. None work all the time or even close. I've heard of 70% patterns/signals but never seen or experienced them. Some proven pros say they bat 70%. Even then, if they don't handle their loses well, they'll lose.
Charting definitely has a place on the typical farm. Results from charting will never be perfect but I see it as the farmer's best tool for timing his sales. Like any other tool, the more you know about it the better it'll work for you.
Don
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Chart pattern psychology
