Taylor has been getting press by predicting droughts for the last 3 years (maybe longer).  Every year he comes out saying that this is the year for it, the odds say so, especially since we didn't have one last year.  I have started to think that maybe he has made up his mind, then develops the data he wants to use to support his conclusion.  As far as I can tell, if you predict a drought every year, you're bound to be right sooner or later (at least once every 19 years).  It also gets your name in all the farming press, because who wants to hear that everything is going to be average or normal (I do).

Mike