|
SW MN and Gold Canyon AZ | Experience from past trades tells me don't sell the option now. I always LEG into these type of trades. Buy the put now and wait until the market tops and shows a down trend. Yes the call will not be worth as much. You could wait for the 50% retracement in a down market and then sell the call.
Usually selling the call in june or july works better as seasonal odds are better for a down turn.
These are VERY volitile markets, its like standing on a train track with the train coming at you if you get on the wrong side. Selling options is not for the faint at heart.
Just buying the put this year I think is still the best. To many farmers get caught up in the cost and want to cheapen the cost. When you buy the option thats not really what its going to cost in the long run. You must think what is my net $$$(price per bu sold) if the market goes up or the market goes down or even what is my net if the market goes up I sell my cash keep the put and the market goes back down and I make money on the put also. In short you don't really know the cost (net $) until the fat lady sings and the trade is over.
09 puts and calls are pretty spendy right now, not really sure how to trade that yet, I'm still worried about some old crop and 08 stuff yet!!!!! | |
|
|
Marketing advice, should I or shouldn't I
