|
|
USDA Forecast.
2006-07 2007-08
Beg Stox 132 117
Production & Imports 482 486
Total Supply 614 603
Food Use 236 245
Seed Use 19 21
Feed & Residual -8 -35
Exports 250 265
Carry Out 117 87
Note. exports include estimate for flour exports.
The tricky part of the USDA projections is the Feed & Residual number as that is often the statistic category USDA uses to balance for errors & etc., meaning the projected carryout could be overstated by several millions of bushels.
Actual Exports shipped 200.6
Booked-Unshipped 76.6
I note the single car basis for 15% is 125/140 over
Again:
1-If this is the result of a couple of players stuck-the bid can disappear.
2-If this is a broad based demand, then it is obviously for real.
If a commercial is assumed or thought to be standing for delivery, that is one situation & the shorts run & again will be over as they take the gas pipe.
It is virtually impossible to think a speculator would try taking delivery as there is no back stop, the May is -67 to the March.
I note JP Morgan Futures took 150 of the December deliveries but is the only delivery notice I can find & I would suspect that w. receipt was traded, or cud still be held. No idea.
If this is broad based demand, one backstop is the purchase of May puts. I have never traded the options in Mpls & have no idea how thin is that market.
| |
|
More Detail on Spring Wheat.
