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| Trying to get myself back into the swing of things.
Since the 27th of October everything is kind of a blur for me & I didn't add to positions but maintained them & so far so good. But, when I have begun to review events of the past three weeks this agriculture thing is getting a little complicated-
As always, the key is preservation of capital, and within that framework pricing your product to maximize profit. But...the big question are costs of production...next year and thereafter. The cheap dollar does not translate to lower future costs of production.
IF, the Federal Reserve minutes released today imply an end to immediate rate cuts, the dollar game may be temporarily over & would suggest oil prices, on the merits of current data, have advanced high enough.
However, we have two world personalities who appear to be nuts, or at least want that image, willing to use oil and the dollar as a weapon & while I don't think they will get anywhere...you just don't know. In the long run, the dollar will win; it’s the short run which can sometimes be the killer. On top of that, the Chinese & other exporters are getting themselves in a stronger and stronger position in directing the future of the dollar.
We had frost in Argentina over the weekend, the first in 90 years.
We also can assume Russian wants to exercise control where ever they can to enhance the value of their oil interests.
Granted ethanol may not be the answer, but ..what choice do we have in the short run? We need a concerted effort to improve the distribution of the ethanol product in addition to the mandate for production.
Unfortunately, I don't see anyone on the political horizon who truly understands the workings of markets armed with an effective plan to address some of these issues. As each day passes, the USA seems to get farther and farther into a defensive position.
As usual, I suspect other events will transpire to correct some of these problems and the solutions may not come from within the political arena. Evidence suggests not all of our mentally impaired are under medication or lock & key-we’ve elected some & appointed some.
If any additional surprises appear in the next months which add to the upside in world food prices, I have this gnawing fear agriculture could once again be politically vulnerable. I am of the age to clearly remember agriculture used as a lever during the Nixon, Ford & Carter years.
Need to be nimble, yet bold. Need to be bold, yet scared. Survival. A real challenge when dealing with declining numbers of brain cells. Downright scary when I walk into another room in the house and stop to wonder “Now..why did I come in here?” Always be extra kind to the car wash oldsters, the greeters at walmart & the grocery baggers- you never know!
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Generally tasteless thoughts & ramblings
