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Paging a stock market expert
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WYDave
Posted 11/17/2007 18:14 (#240031 - in reply to #236146)
Subject: RE: Paging a stock market expert


Wyoming

I'm not an expert, and don't use anything I say as investment advice.

The next three to nine months will see very high volatility in our stock markets as the financial sector continues to implode. It is an axiom among Wall Street types that "...no rally is sustainable unless the financial sector participates..."

True or not, old sayings like this do inform many in the financial world.

Money center banks like Citigroup are going to likely be broken up and sold off in pieces, which will add turmoil to the M&A activity that was pumping up the market for the last two years. Without banks like Citi being there to fund the private equity and M&A buyers, look for either foreign capital to come in and buy up attractive assets at cheap (to them) prices, or look for deals to be put on ice for a year or more.

Right now, we can see that the market is just about to "roll over" and go into a bearish move. The sectors that had been leading this market higher all year (big-cap tech, materials, mining, oil) are all failing and breaking down. Tech held up until cisco Systems reported earnings and John Chambers said that cisco was seeing a) good sales growth overseas, but b) the US finance sector companies were canceling IT spending very rapidly.

The financial sector is down hard, and will likely go lower as more toxic debt assets are brought onto balance sheets. When bankers get burned, they pull in their horns and start hoarding cash. It is a natural human reaction, but it is going to hurt the US economy in a myriad of ways.

Consumer discretionary companies are missing earnings - even high-end companies that cater to higher-income people. This is a sign that the consumer is tightening their belts, and 70% of the US economy is propped up on consumers.

Companies that export real goods might do well, depending upon how much exposure they have to the debt market and the US economy.

The one thing to take away from all the news and noise you hear is this: All the economists, analysts, etc -- that claimed a year ago, or even just six months ago - that the "sub-prime problems won't propagate to the rest of the economy" -- they were wrong. Not just a little bit wrong. Big-time wrong. This economy is propped up by debt, both in the public sector and in the private sector. Taking credit out of this economy is like starving an engine of air. It might still run, but you won't get much power out of it.

 

As for ag land sales: The slide in the US dollar might finally start to get a glimmer of common sense through in DC about spending. I'm not holding out much hope, but it is possible.

If spending does start getting cut, you can almost bet on the Farm Bill being a big, fat target. If you're in an area where lots of program crops are grown, you might see land prices get corrected downwards if the ag payments program is modified in a way that substantially reduces program pay-outs.

 

Also, it is useful to know that the historical pattern of boom-busts goes like this:

Stocks/equities go up, up, up... and finally, they crest. (1999 to 2000)

Equities crash. (2000 to 2003)

Capital flows out of equities into real estate. (2002 to 2003)

Real estate goes up, up, up. (2002 to 2006) Farm real estate is late to join the real estate up-cycle. (2005 to today)

Real estate crests, then rolls over. (right now

Farm land previously going up in price due to development pressure comes down, as the demand for raw land for development dried up.

Capital out of real estate goes looking for another home - either commodities or debt instruments, depending upon the coincidence of their cycles. (today, right now)

 

The succession of real estate upon equities has been true for the last four major equities/real estate boom/busts in US history. The questions for your particular piece of land are "does this land have any development potential, or was it appreciating because of development potential?" and "How much would rents/prices go down on that land and comparable land in your area if the Farm Bill cut payments?"

 

 



Edited by NVDave 11/17/2007 18:27
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