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| I suppose ideally we would hit the high end of the market but we really don't know where that is until it's over. As we speak the market is offering $3.70 for corn and $9 plus for new crop beans for october 08 delivery. The question we need to ask is can we afford to contract corn for $3.70 and have corn prices go up to $4.50? Or can we afford to not sell and have the corn price fall to $2.50? In other words we have to sell at a good price when they are willing to pay it. O course we can estimate the odds for price improvement or price loss, but how much do we want to risk on that decision. I sold $2.20 corn last fall from the combine. That was a significant improvement over the $1.80 pre harvest. Did I regret it? Sure but the $4.00 sale later made the deal better.
Sometimes I think some fellows make sales and then regret it and then chase the market with long positions or calls as if they want to reverse the previous mistake. However when I make a sale, I hope the price does go higher so I can make further sales that are even more profitable. Just make the deal and get it behind you. You aren't apt to pick the top anyway. You can live with good decisions and a good sale in a bull market is not a mistake. A mistake is not making a sale when a great opportunity is offered. If it goes up sell some more or sell some 08 or 09. Put some money i n the bank and hope that it's a bad decision. Which means you will get a better opportunity on the next batch. | |
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This makes me mad
