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South Texas | Dear PB,
I can only tell you what I've done for the past 15-20 years. In my case, my dirt allows me to rely on pretty consistent yields, which is a huge factor in the strategy.
I simply sell before it's grown. The local buyers buy corn in 1000 bu contracts or more, beans in 500 or more. I contract around 80% of anticipated harvest well before harvest. The rest goes for spot price. I have no bins, no dryer, no trucks. I have to keep things simple so that's how I do it. I plant no-til with one machine, and own the combine. Works for me.
This year I didn't find many opportunities to sell my beans early. So...I'm only 1/3 sold. Local high between last fall and now was $6.80 and I've been selling and will aggressively sell now for about $6.50. Will harvest price be higher? Could be, but I don't bet on it. By the way, if I could bet on a late fall, I could gain 20 cents at the river terminal just by delivering in Nov instead of Oct. So that pretty well establishes the value of the bin storage option. I do not believe I can store, then retrieve beans for that price, but the guy who already has the bins probably could. It just depends what works for you.
I used to sell at harvest--couldn't stand the pain. So I just sit back, watch, think, and sell now and again when it seems reasonable. I try to not notice daily fluctuations--try to see trends. I've never done worse than harvest sales and usually better. And it's so dang simple. If nothing else, try selling everything evenly during May. You'll certainly beat Oct-Nov delivery prices most every year. Oh, and for some odd reason, Friday's seem to be the best day to sell. Anyone know why that is, or is it just my imagination?
Best of luck with finding whatever method makes you comfortable and works for you. By the way, do you like $2.50 corn? My local elevators are offering that right now for new crop '07 delivery and it's been out there for months. Not a bad bet, I'd think, for at least 20% or so of the crop.
Stetts Stettler | |
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grain marketing
