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Writing a VRA
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chuckster
Posted 5/31/2007 12:10 (#156668 - in reply to #156244)
Subject: Re: Writing a VRA



Where Lewis and Clark finished the rum
Arnie - 5/30/2007 12:29

Chuckster I like your thought process. It is fun and the more variable the more profitable. One does need to start somewhere and collecting data is the first step. I also agree with stable high and stable low. The stuff in the middle is a tougher call but maybe those other data layers will shed some light on the middle. The tough part there is figuring out the analysis.

I was once told that true GeoSpatial Statistics for the "working man" is a tough row to hoe BUT if one can find a "decent" linear relationship in the GPS data world you might be looking in the right direction. If you don't have that...............one better leave it up to the really high end guys to persue those more complicated multiple data relationships. My self I will try to keep it simple and look for relationships between just 2 data sets at a time and then see if it rings true with "common sense" that comes from experience.

Here in corn country will there be an "ethanol" premium to look at like you look at protein in wheat? The frustrating thing about all this is I just have.....hopefully.....at least about 15 to 20 more tries (harvests) to figure it all out!!!!

I am glad Walt posted up his VRA question.

Arnie



Yes, thanks Walt - and sorry for the sidetracks...

Re ethanol premium - since they are interested in the starch, and starch varies anything like protein does here, there really should be premiums, but that doesn't mean the "big" guys will figure it out. We did some studies some years ago on spring wheat milling yield and selecting for that one attribute. Our back of the envelope math indicated that Cargill could increase bottom line by several million bucks a year per percent increase in milling yield, but they weren't interested in doing any identity preservation to find that increased yield. So the lesson might be find a smaller, quicker to react to new ideas ethanol plant - maybe a coop that will pull those increased starch attributes through their plant to the bottom line for all those who participate.

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