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John Burns
Posted 11/5/2010 01:26 (#1422442 - in reply to #1421502)
Subject: Big difference between 80's and now



Pittsburg, Kansas

Going from memory here so someone correct me if I am wrong.

80's we were a creditor nation, now we are largest debtor the world has ever seen.

80's we had a surplus current account. Now we have huge current account deficit.

We have a lot less options today than we had then. If our "lenders" that buy our government debt decide they no longer want it we are in big trouble. Then instead of only a portion of the debt being monetized as it is now, it will be all of the deficit being paid by printing fresh money. That would lead to hyperinflation in very short order.

We are in an infinitely more precarious position today than we were in the 80's.

Pulling away the punch bowl in the 80's caused a severe recession and some failures in some sectors (ag for one example). Pulling the punch bowl away after we are all completely inebriated from excess liquidity will result in something much worse than Europe is going through right now with austerity measures. Not pulling it away will result in the complete destruction of the dollar. Dam'd if we do and dam'd if we don't. It is either a lot of pain now or much worse later. The Fed has chosen the much worse later.

There is no easy out of the hangover from a debt drunken party. The debt has to be repudiated somehow. We are choosing the "kick the can down the road some more" method and that will just make things worse in the future.

John



Edited by John Burns 11/5/2010 01:34
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