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| The wheat deal was unique in that we had an out-of-position commercial stuck short-
I remain bullish as I believe we have underlying support relative to good demand plus the supply concerns about potential acreage shifts. In addition to the grains I am riding a variety of ETF's & the cross currents these past few days regarding the mortgage gate, the currencies & sugar & other commodities & grains are strange. My gut is telling me to be very careful in here as we approach the election & another USDA report. I have been in markets when just some small, almost meaningless, event can precipitate a big correction. I believe current prices already reflect the good demand & have built in a lower production number in both beans and corn. We are in that frothy stage of excess speculation & what amazes me is the support this market exhibits on the small set backs in price. At the moment, the trend is our friend & if we don't get a price break in the next week or so, may well put in an early top (December-January) over possible SA weather concerns. We are in the type of atmosphere where I can get myself in a lot of trouble if I start to 'try and out think' the market & is why I believe in the KISS system translating to me spending more time in the closet. Right now I am operating midst the dim light of my laptop trying to understand this new options software we bought to use on the new website-the technology we have today is astounding & wish my brain were just a few years younger. I may have to turn this options deal over to a grandson. | |
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Lonely in the Closet
