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| How much of this 'shortage' is perception? We don't have as many critters on feed and ethanol has to rely on oil going up to stay in the game. I'm guessing we have plenty to go around and even have 1Bbu leftover (at least that's what the USDA says). So, rationing isn't really necessary, but here we are. I think we are currently experiencing what wheat did in 2008, but I think the players are a little more knowledgeable this time around and it will get sold off much sooner (no more buy the market limit up and take the rest of the day off).
We had fairly orderly, if not a little inflated, markets this summer and most of us metered out sales when the price was attractive - generally a good strategy, but you don't win the lottery that way. I can't say we should all change to a purely speculative marketing plan where we wait for the price blow up and sell it all (maybe several years worth). However, those cheaper, crazy, way of the money calls might end up being part of the program for the next few years. Could I afford to loose 5 cents/bu to insure that I capture at least 1/2 of a significant run up? Maybe. I don't want to change marketing plans away from what's generally sound and reduces risk though.
What do you think?
Thanks,
Pat
PS: I listened to the same WILL reports from the elevator and it would not surprise me that much of the crop is already priced - that's certainly the way many of the advisors were leaning.
Edited by Pat H 10/11/2010 07:52
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What do we do now?
