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| Not sure what to say about the "levitation" thing? Looks like some traders I've talked to today.
Good marketing IS NOT the same as trading... a good marketer probably has some trading in him... but hopefully knows where to draw the line. We've all heard or seen the sad stories of people who "lost the farm" on some wild speculation... Today there are legitimate moves that will rip a persons financial head off... like we need help doing that..?? Of course there wouldn't be a farmer alive who didn't move when opportunity presented itself... but farming today is more than just betting correctly... (although that does help..)
Actually the song... "a good gambler knows what to keep and what to throw away.. because every hand's a winner and every hand's a loser..." probably isn't too far off... Mother nature deals the cards.. and some times it takes awhile before we can learn what to do with the hand we've been dealt... but staying in the game long enough and it all evens out... we all go through the short crops... the big crops... low prices and high prices... every now and then a big crop AND a big price... Learning how to strecth a single into a double... a double into a triple... and a triple all the way... that is the trick... and staying alive and paying the bills in the process..
Staying in the game long enough to learn the tricks can be a challenge.. I always wonder how those who started there careers with a drought did it... wow... that was something. This crop that has just been born over the past five years who have witnessed the best years of my farming career... uhm... "it's not this easy."
I've been marketing grain since... ??? about 1985... the drought of 88... the wheat drought of 89... 15 bushel wheat average across the whole farm.. the floods in 93... the rally in 96... the long downturn till about 03... and so on and so forth... Chernoble.. A couple of wheat freezes... $20 wheat.. $8.00 corn and so forth... "almost" nothing surprises me anymore... the biggest lesson that I've learned is that you need a plan to survive... what if prices go down? What if prices go up? What if prices go down ALOT?? or up ALOT?? As much as possible if you can put yourself in a position where you are never FORCED to part with your production.. you have your bills paid or sales on the books to convert to cash to stay ahead of the bills..
Hedgeing can be a great tool... but likewise you'll need the $$$ to back up the position.. right now the wheat market is taking it to the wheat shorts... those who believed we would NEVER see X again are either folding or throwing more poker chips into the table... how long does it last? Will we REALLY see the demand that this run up is forecasting?
I'm not going to say.... maybe... maybe not... I honestly don't know...??
Furthermore, if the problems overseas do actually cause a spike in demand... what will the funds, USDA and everyone else.. including farmers... do to respond?
All I remember is shorting soybean calls back in the day.. closer to my teenage years... the time when you "know it all" and dang near losing my rear end... and those days were tame compared to now.... these are career changing markets... either a positive... or a negative experience... depending upon events mostly out of your control...
I visited with someone tonight who sold three years of wheat.. not long ago... I offered my congratulations on the courage to bet correctly... I almost dropped my jaw when I heard the words... "what could go wrong?"
Well... I could tell you some stories... What could go wrong? How about asking that to the guy who bought the $20 wheat? Or the guy who ended up selling the $2.50 back in the early 90's... in short.. A lot can and will "go wrong." The object is NOT to ADD more risk... the object is to take all the risk you can AFFORD to be compensated for... and then seeing it through the storm.
Nothing is cut and dried... at the elevator I worked for... I always wondered... was it being rich that afforded the wise old grandpa's to have so much grain in the elevator.. OR having grain IN the elevator that allowed the wise old grandpa's to BE rich...???
No doubt it took them a LOT of sweat in the sun to put it there over their lifetimes...
When they needed to cash in to bail out their sons.... or their grandsons... for the mistakes of youth.
I guess I better be careful.. because I don't have a Grandfather alive anymore... just something to consider...
What could go wrong indeed...??? Just be careful... that's all I'm saying.
"Somewhere in the darkness.. the gambler He broke even."
Thanks Grandpa. | |
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I got a NEW sure fire market adviser..
