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SE ND | While I am absolutly no expert on trying to figure out when the market is going to know what the avg. yield is going to be for a certain year, I do know how much storage I have and what my cost per acre is. I also look at trend lines and know that you "usually" have a strong marketing opportunity around the beginning of summer when you look at the seasonals. I tend to rely on what my breakeven is and when I come to a certain % or time frame I make sales. I know that I will never hit the high and some years I will leave a lot of money on the table but I sleep better at night knowing that I am doing what I think is right to keep the farm for a long time to come (because as bad as it gets and as hard as it is sometimes I cannot picture myself doing anything else). Now I think that if a producer has the chance to lock in profits on some of his acres it is always a good idea to do so. I don't know of anyone who can look at the country as a whole and estimate what the final yield is going to be. Every firm that puts out #s, including the USDA is all most ALWAYS off by a %. As far as my back window we are really wet and had to PP a large percent of our farm (my neighbor who is 90 said he cant remember it being this wet ever) but what we do have in the ground looks really good. I wish everyone on here a successful year both in prodution and marketing as well. I know this website has helped me with both.
Edited by Everett 7/13/2010 11:59
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crop conditions report
