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North Central Illinois | I haven't heard anyone preaching about a crop failure. There are areas that are hurting just as there are every year. The thing that is grabbing the markets attention is the fact that while crop rating are high most areas have a few issues. For starters the three "I" states are rated lower than they were a year ago. I know people from the areas other than one of the "I" states hate it whenever anyone mentions the amount of bushels they produce but facts are facts. The way I see it at this time is that the rating in many other big corn states are very high. Minnesota is just crazy high, along with big ratings in Nebraska, Kanasas, South Dakota, Wisconsin. These states produce a lot of corn. I think the reason the trade has perked up is the considerable reduction in stock, a reduction in acres and questionable crop conditions in Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri and out east. It really depends on weather from here on out. Iowa still has the potential to produce a big crop because north central Iowa is in pretty good shape and that is where the bulk of their production comes from. Northern Illinois is holding its own for now. There are some really good looking crops and some not so good looking crops. An extended dry period will hurt shallow rooted crops there. Big producing areas of central Illinois have a lot of water damage. Potential for some good crops? Sure but way too many sore spots to produce big numbers. Indiana I am not sure about other than they have had a lot of extremes this year. Bottom line is that there way too many variables with production for the trade to be comfortable after report last week. I still think there is the potential for a respectable crop nationwide but I think there are way too many issues for us to come close to last year. Quality should be much better given a lot of early planting and ahead of normal on degree days. Should be interesting. I am not a raging bull in fact I've been pretty bearish corn since last December but the report last week and the spring and summer weather may be a game changer. Not ready to become a full blow bull yet but it bears watching. You never seem to see anything but doom and gloom and lower prices ahead. How short the market are you? Good luck. | |
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I'm out of step
