|
| USDA does ear counts, etc in August. Cranking the numbers with a "normal" growing season would have yielded X amount of bushels. As it turned out.. we didn't have a "normal" finish to the crop... actually in this neck of the woods we finished stronger than normal with great stay green at the end and great test weights.. We've hauled upwards of 62 #'s out of the bins from last year's crop.. not all of it.. but some.
However, this wasn't the case over the majority of the production belt.
How much and where was the corn light? I believe we are now seeing the crop being measured in the bin as to what really occured. I don't believe.. honestly.. that USDA does it any different than the majority of us farmers.. We walk the fields.. take stand/ear counts.. watch it pour into the bin.. count the trucks.. then haul it to market.. We "guestimate" what is in the bin... but you don't actually KNOW until you haul it out as most do not have scales.
Are the trucks weighing heavy or light? That alone can add up to an extra load.. or one short.. in a decent sized farm bin.
Truth be told.. neither the farmer nor USDA will know until we get to the bottom of the Country's grain bins... As USDA said in it's last report.. across the country... we are reaching the bottom.. "faster than expected."
However, it's still a guesstimate.. we still have 3 months to go.. before we have to make the last measurement.
300 mln bushels out of a 13,370 mln crop is 2.24%... frankly... I doubt that I come that close on my own farm.
It wouldn't surprise me if the 300 number grows.. or shrinks between now and the final findings. Of the two.. I believe USDA was closer than Lanworth.. although the later may be able to perfect their processes.. over time. | |
|
Lanworth's crop guess might be right after all
