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| I see a lot of IF's tonight & time is marching on.
There was an old 'saying' in the 1950's -"So Goes Wheat, So Goes the World (prices)." Of course, the world has changed since those days.
Reductions in carry out are anticipated in the Supply-Demand report. My work continues to reflect a 180 soybean carryout...corn carryout should be slightly reduced based upon the now expected Chinese business.
However, the carryout of concern should be next year. The next crop year will begin with a surplus of soybeans in SA.
The probability is high the weather may shift into a La Nina raising some concern about a dry August. On the other hand an active hurricane season is predicted suggesting a potential supply of Gulf moisture;
As mentioned a couple of weeks ago, not every country is able to run a surplus (in terms of spending rate). IF Europe REALLY does refuse to start their printing press & strives to cut spending.....this will impact a variety of countries.
There are a variety of IF's.
The dollar is of great importance. In fact, I believe most of the USDA demand forecasts were predicated on a less strong dollar.
Usually the grain markets build a weather premium. However, I recall a few years in which the market assumes good yields until proven otherwise. The 1984 & 1985 crops years are examples.
IF hot, dry & windy weather does not appear somewhere & IF the dollar remains strong we may begin an UGLY unwind in a couple more weeks. These grain markets require some almost immediate upside movement to test the upside of these trading ranges....otherwise speculative interest may begin to wane.
Additionally, more and more people may be waking up to the fact 1) Government officials could not successfully organize an Elks Club Picnic, let alone the economy or the oil spill & 2) Whomever is President, currently, or for the next term, is going to grab a handful of musty straw, as people will not be satsified.
I am a week behind in the newsletter as I am involved in several markets but will get one out tomorrow & follow with another this weekend.
Usually I am in a WalMart once a week to pick up a supply of Diet Snapple & check on prices. Generally around 5 PM. As I am now involved in several bear eft's, this past couple of weeks we've changed the time to early afternoon so we can catch the close of the stocks. I notice an entirely different shopper during this time period. The unemployed. A lot of them. I noticed more folks having to return some items to the cashier so they may remain within their budget. The tax bonus deals have been spent....I assume unemployment is not much & same for those on welfare....while these folks have been around awhile, it does not seem to be getting better. The mood is not good out there.
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THE IF'S & THE CALENDAR
